Introduction
The China – India – Arabia/Persia trade route dates back thousands of years. Today, the Indian Ocean forms the global Mediterranean. Virtually all trade between Europe and Asia goes this way. See map below.
(TEU = twenty-foot equivalent unit; standard container. A modern container ship can carry up to 24 TEU.) On This is an incredible visualization of the world's shipping routes – Vox There is an interactive map.
In 2022, over 23 ships passed through the Suez Canal. Of these, container ships account for 000%, bulk ships (ore, soy, etc.) 27% and tankers 22%. In terms of tonnage, however, container traffic accounts for almost 27%. The large bulk ships (oil, gas, ore, wheat, etc.) go around the Cape of Good Hope.
In the future, the Arctic could become an alternative to the Indian Ocean route. However, this route is fraught with navigational problems and problems caused by Russian administrative requirements. Therefore, container traffic, which is based on timetables, will probably have to cross the Indian Ocean for the foreseeable future.
It is thus this artery that is now threatened by the Houthi attack. It should be noted that the other major artery – the Panama Canal – has reduced capacity due to drought.
The attacks
The threat from the Houthis was brought to serious attention on November 16 when IMSC – International Maritime Security Construct – sent out a letter warning shipping of attacks by the Houthis. By then, USN ships had already neutralized threatening drones in at least two cases. IMSC includes Albania, Bahrain, Estonia, Jordan, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom and United States. Its operational part is called CTF Sentinel. IMSC was formed in 2019 in response to Iranian threats to shipping.
In 2020, EMASOH; European Maritime Awareness in the Strait of Hormuz was organized by Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal. EMASOH has a diplomatic and a military component; the latter is called Operation Agenor. It was a response, among other things, to the Iranian hijacking of the Swedish-owned Stena Impero in 2019. Against this background, it would have been natural for Sweden to participate in this operation.
The most notable incident is probably when the Houthis hijacked the car and truck carrier Galaxy Leader owned by Israeli interests. The hijacking was carried out by helicopter, which shows the resources they have, and was filmed by the hijackers (see Al-Aimed Yehiya is quick on X: "Observations of the military operation typical of the marine forces during which the Israeli ship was controlled yum ams in the Red Sea. https://t.co/7dGNtbcMos” / X (twitter.com)The film shows a highly professional team of hijackers.
Following this, a number of attacks have been carried out on merchant ships but also on American warships. American destroyers and a French frigate have shot down a number of Iranian drones. In addition, there is at least one case of a coastal missile attack on a merchant ship.
On December 17, Somali pirates hijacked a Maltese-flagged ship in the area. This is the first Somali hijacking since 2017. The Somali pirates are likely simply taking advantage of the unrest in the area, although there may of course be links between them and the Houthis. EUNAVFOR Operation Atalanta has the main task of protecting ships against these pirates.
At the time of writing, most major shipping companies have decided not to use the Red Sea route. It is unknown how many will choose to go around the Cape of Good Hope, but in any case, Maersk, the largest container shipping company, is currently waiting for developments. Incidentally, there is a conflict between Maersk and the US Navy because the shipping company refuses to ship oil for the US Navy.
On November 18, the US Secretary of Defense announced the formation of a coalition (Operation Prosperity Garden) to protect ships in the Red Sea. This will include: the US, France, the UK, Bahrain, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and the Seychelles,
Chinese warships in the area have reportedly not responded to distress signals from attacked ships; one would think that China should be interested in protecting shipping in terms of its economic interests.
Comments
Iran's involvement is clear, as the Houthis are using Iranian equipment. However, it is unclear to what extent Iran can control the Houthis.
It is interesting to note that the Houthis use a number of different weapons systems: drones, coastal robots, ballistic missiles, and hijackers.
The route around the Cape of Good Hope is safer but longer. For a container ship with a capacity of 20 TEU, a trip from Hong Kong to Marseille would be 000 days longer at a speed of 10 knots. The additional fuel cost would amount to 20 M$. On the other hand, the ship would then avoid paying the Suez Canal fee, which can amount to 2$.[1] The extra costs are of course borne by the customers.
For Israel, which has its large port of Ashdod on the Mediterranean coast, the extra journey will of course be even longer and more expensive.
Parenthetically, one understands how important the Suez Canal is to Egypt's economy.
But OPG will also cost money. Who pays? Normally, the flag states should do this, but most merchant ships flying flags of convenience – and the Marshall Islands, for example – are unlikely to pay anything.
Regarding the protection itself, this is probably difficult, especially with regard to the large container ships. There is an asymmetric cost here: when the FNS Languedoc shot down a drone, the Aster 15 robot was used; one of these costs around 1 M€ while the drone being fought costs a few thousand. Which weapon is chosen in a given situation is determined by the geometry of the protected object, the escort ship and the threat. In a simpler case, the threat approaches the escort ship and this can use its anti-aircraft guns.
In any case, the situation in the Red Sea risks leading to large cost increases for shipping, which risks damaging Europe's economy and fueling inflation again.
An interesting question is how all these operations (Agenor, Atalanta, Sentinel and Prosperity Garden) will relate to each other. In addition, there are, for example, China and Russia (?) who also have warships in the area with a protection mission.
Sweden, which is dependent on shipping, does not participate in any of these operations aimed at maritime security, although we have participated in Operation Atalanta.
To be continued.
Lars Wedin
[1] Information to the author of the article by Captain Lars H. Bergqvist