Crises in the Middle East – risks of spreading to Europe

This is the first report from the Royal Academy of Military Sciences' new three-year project Security in tomorrow's Europe – Swedish perspective (SES). The project title speaks of “the Europe of tomorrow”, mainly with regard to the coming years. In this report, the time horizon is narrower: the first half of 2019.

The starting point of the report is the Syrian arena with its multifaceted relevance for a divided and weakened Europe. From a European perspective, the picture is further complicated by Brexit and the impending power shifts both in the EU institutions and in key member states. European preparedness to deal with potential crises could be negatively affected.

The report serves as a reminder that developments in the Middle East, Europe's immediate vicinity, pose threats and challenges that affect Europe and, directly/indirectly, Sweden's security. The report seeks to counteract an overly narrow focus on the Nordic region in Swedish security policy.