During the spring and early summer of 2026, governments have fallen in four countries in Eastern Europe, all members of both the EU and NATO: Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia. Much has been written about the Hungarian parliamentary elections on April 12 and the change of prime minister that took place, from Fidesz's Viktor Orbán to Tisza's Péter Magyar. However, the fall of the Bulgarian, Romanian and Slovenian governments has not received as much attention.
The questions that will be addressed here concern whether there are any common development features between the three, but above all what significance the changes may have for the three countries themselves, as well as for the EU and NATO.
A quick look at the parliamentary elections shows no direct similarities between the three countries. In Bulgaria The conservative and pro-European GERB government was forced to resign in December 2025, after weeks of protests against the new budget and corruption in the government. In the elections, which took place on April 19, Rumen Radev, President of Bulgaria since 2017 and leader of the Progressive Bulgaria party, won by convincing 44 percent of the voters that he could rid the country of corruption. Progressive Bulgaria, a center-left party on the political spectrum, thus became the governing party.
I Romania The government's fall had other reasons. The immediate reason was that the reforms that the liberal Prime Minister, Ilie Bolojan, had tried to implement were seen as too harsh for the population. This particularly applied to the Social Democrats, who also felt that the measures primarily affected their voters. In May 2026, they therefore left the four-party coalition in which they themselves were the largest party and joined the nationalist far-right party Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) in a vote of no confidence. This led to the Bolojan government being split and instead given an interim role while waiting for a new government to be appointed and approved.
I Slovenia The change of government took place after a regular election on 22 April. The incumbent Prime Minister, the liberal Robert Golob (Freedom Movement, GS), won, with a majority of one seat in parliament. However, he failed to form a coalition and after several weeks of fruitless negotiations, a center-right coalition consisting of four parties was able to achieve the necessary number of votes in parliament. Janez Janša, leader of the right-wing nationalist Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), and, as he himself described it, an admirer of Donald Trump, was thus elected Prime Minister for the fourth time.
The background to today's situation
I Bulgaria The many different political parties that have held power in rapid succession have meant that the country's politics have often changed in character. In 2021, a large number of "golden passports" were awarded to people who invested in Bulgaria (some of whom were Russians). Two years later, another government began work on a lawsuit (not yet settled) against Gazprom because the company had cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria in 2022, following the Russian attack on Ukraine, which had refused to pay in rubles.
Bulgaria has been plagued by a host of problems for many years. The country is the poorest in the EU, and the situation is not helped by the severe corruption that no government, despite promises to the contrary, has managed to tackle. The desired entry into the Eurogroup was therefore postponed several times before Bulgaria became a member at the turn of the year 2026.
Mila Moshelova, an independent Bulgarian analyst, has described the character of Bulgaria and at the same time explained the outcome of the election in the following way: “We live in a country that is 60 percent pro-EU, but which also has a strong historical sense of approval and closeness to Russia. Rumen Radev, when he won the election, managed to manage both of these feelings.”
I Romania A combination of political and economic problems has led to a major crisis for the country. The problem with the Romanian economy, which a few years ago was very good with rapid growth, is that the country now has major structural problems, including weak growth, high borrowing costs and low tax revenues in relation to the budget. Romania also has high inflation, a current account deficit of seven percent and a budget deficit of nine percent, the largest in Europe.
The acute political problems arose in connection with the 2024 presidential election. The first round, held on 24 November, was to have been followed by a second round on 8 December, as no candidate had received more than 50 percent of the vote. However, on 6 December, a court annulled the election, declaring that Russian influence operations had influenced the previous outcome. New presidential elections took place on 4 and 18 May 2025, in which Nicușor Dan (an independent) emerged as the winner. The new Prime Minister was the liberal Ilie Bolojan, who was given the difficult task of demonstrating to the European Commission by the end of August 2026 that the promised reforms and investments had been implemented in order to continue to receive money from the EU's recovery fund after the pandemic. If this does not happen, Romania will lose out on large sums of money. With Bolojan's fall as Prime Minister in May 2026, the situation is now even more difficult.
Compared to Bulgaria and Romania, Slovenia has been seen as an example of successful development. This has been particularly true in the economic area, where the country became a member of the Eurogroup in 2007. After a slump in the 1990s, the economy has recovered and Slovenia is now one of the countries in Eastern and Central Europe with the highest standard of living.
In terms of politics, however, Slovenia's politics have been more reminiscent of Bulgaria and Romania. After independence, a number of new parties have been formed, which have often been part of coalition governments. However, the governments have been in power for a very short time. They have fallen due to dissatisfaction with excessively liberal policies or as a result of excessively harsh measures in connection with the European financial crisis, which also affected Slovenia. Corruption has also been a reason. For the past four years, Slovenia has been led by the completely newly formed Freedom Movement (GS) under Robert Golob, former head of the state energy company, together with the Social Democrats and the Left.
Consequences of government collapse and new governments in the three countries
The direct effects of the changes of recent months have differed between countries. Bulgaria has now got a new government, which with a strong majority in parliament (130 seats out of 240) can govern without a coalition partner. It is therefore likely that Bulgaria will break the trend that has meant that the country has held seven parliamentary elections in the past six years.
At the same time, Bulgaria, with Rumen Radev as prime minister, has taken a step closer to Russia. Radev advocates talks with Russia on Ukraine and emphasizes the Orthodox doctrine that unites the two countries. In July, Bulgaria left the “coalition of the willing” that brings together Ukraine’s supporting countries, arguing that support for Ukraine only prolongs the war. He has also previously said no to EU sanctions against Patriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian Orthodox Church. It is clear that Radev sees Russia as a continuing strong state, which other European countries should not approach in a confrontational manner.
Another consequence of the election is that Bulgaria's military aid to Ukraine, which has led to 13 military aid packages being delivered to the country so far, has now been withdrawn. Defense Minister Stoyanov has emphasized that Kiev had not requested more and that Bulgaria also needed to manufacture weapons for its own needs. However, commercial arms exports, which have been important for Ukraine, continue, as Bulgaria has been able to deliver Soviet-standard weapons, which Ukraine has needed. According to Stoyanov, commercial arms exports are of great importance because they are mutually beneficial for both countries.
However, it is highly unlikely that Bulgaria under Radev would go so far as to leave NATO or the EU. At a meeting in late May between Prime Minister Radev and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Radev declared that Bulgaria has always kept its promises as an ally and has now reached the two percent target, while continuing with the promised increases in defense spending. He also spoke of the need to solve the problem of fragmentation of European industry and advocated stronger cooperation between NATO and the EU.
Prime Minister Radev is also positive about the accession of both Ukraine and Moldova. This became clear when the EU decided on 12 June 2026 to allow Ukraine and Moldova to begin membership negotiations, just over a month after Radev took office as Prime Minister. Hungary had then revoked its previous veto. However, he is critical of the idea of letting political reasons take precedence over fulfilling the EU's criteria. He also wants to see further enlargement of the EU to the Western Balkans but (like his predecessors) takes a tough stance on demands for constitutional changes to approve North Macedonia.
I Romania The results have gone in a different direction than in Bulgaria. Instead of a government with a stable majority, the country, just over two months after Ilie Bolojan was defeated in a vote of no confidence, still has only a caretaker ministry, led by Bolojan.
The Romanian constitution stipulates that the government must have the support of parliament. If this is not the case, the president can, under certain circumstances, call new elections. For Nicușor Dan, who has declared that his mandate is to maintain Romania's pro-Western direction, this is hardly attractive, however, given that the nationalist far-right party, AUR, is currently the country's most popular party, according to surveys. The party, led by George Simion, would receive 40,9 percent of the vote in an election, while the Social Democrats would only receive 18 percent and the Liberals 13,5 percent.
Romania, which is usually seen as a stable NATO and EU country, is of great importance to both the EU and NATO, both of which can be affected by the political, institutional and economic crisis in the country. An important reason for this is Romania's geostrategic position with a border with Moldova and Ukraine and a coast on the Black Sea. Romania has traditionally seen Russia as a threat and has therefore wanted to have a strong NATO presence in the country. NATO has also, after the full-scale Russian attack on Ukraine, strengthened the defense in Romania. Among other things, as part of the forward ground defense, there is a unit led by France, while air surveillance is currently led by the United Kingdom. On the Black Sea coast, the Mihail Kogălniceanu air base is being expanded, which is planned to have 10,000 soldiers by 2030, and which will also increase NATO's presence. At the same time, the US's European policy makes the situation uncertain. On the one hand, there is an American anti-missile system at the Deveselu base as an important link between Romania and the United States, but on the other hand, the United States has announced that it intends to reduce its presence in Romania by 500 (out of 1,500) people.
Romania has taken a strong stance for Ukraine and acts as a logistical base for support to the country. The Romanians have also deepened their defense cooperation with Ukraine and actively contributed to its defense. The country has also previously been very positive about both Ukraine and Moldova's membership in the EU. Regarding the AUR party, interest is focused on seeking a union between Moldova and Romania, but the party's representatives can also accept Ukrainian membership in the EU provided that the EU's requirements are met and that issues regarding the rights of the Romanian minority can be resolved.
I Slovenia Prime Minister Janša has been very clear about the changes he wants to implement. Among other things, he wants to revise the domestic agenda of former Prime Minister Robert Golob by lowering taxes for the business sector and at the same time reducing support for civil society. Janša is also known as an opponent of non-governmental organizations, whose support he has also said he wants to reduce. During his previous term as Prime Minister, 2020–22, Janša criticized state television many times and was in open confrontation with journalists on social media. As opposition leader, during the following term, his criticism of the Golob government included that Slovenia was over-regulated. In addition, he has warned, among other things, about the influx of migrants and a biased press.
With Janša back in power, the opposition has criticized the prime minister's previous activities, citing a parliamentary report that accused two government parties (Janša's SDS and New Slovenia, NSi) of transferring money from the state treasury to organizations close to the two parties during the period 2020–2022. A number of demonstrations have also taken place in Slovenia during June. A key issue has been Slovenia's democracy, which the protesters believe has been weakened during Janša's previous term, when his strong pressure on the judiciary also drew criticism within the EU.
Changes have also been announced in foreign policy, which under Golob's government was pro-Palestinian but is now reversed and becoming pro-Israel. Furthermore, defense spending was a politically controversial topic, and incorrect figures were used to claim that the country spent 2,01 percent of its budget on defense. The government also considered for a period holding a referendum on continued NATO membership.
As part of the new foreign policy, Prime Minister Janša has stated that he wants to demonstrate his commitment to both NATO and the EU and to restore Slovenia's credibility. He has also argued, as is believed to avoid criticism from Donald Trump, for increasing Slovenian defense spending.
Janša is also a very strong supporter of Ukraine. His previous government has provided military aid, and to show his support he traveled to Ukraine a few weeks after Russia's full-scale invasion. He also supports Ukraine and Moldova's desire to become members of the EU, while believing that both must first meet the EU's criteria.
Closing remarks
Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia have many similarities. All three countries gained their freedom as a result of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, although Slovenia, as part of the former Yugoslavia, first experienced a brief war in 1991 before gaining independence. All became members of NATO in 2004 and the EU at about the same time (2004 for Slovenia and 2007 for Bulgaria and Romania).
With the exception of Slovenia, the standard of living has been low, while corruption has been high in all three countries. Furthermore, there has been extensive emigration of young and well-educated people, which has led to a shortage of labor. Such factors have naturally affected the political situation. Among other things, the number of newly formed parties has been large, and there have been many changes of government.
As with previous similar changes of government and crises, the events that took place in the spring of 2026 appear to be rooted primarily in the countries' own policies and problems rather than in international influence. There is no indication that other countries or political movements have had any decisive influence on what has happened recently.
This does not mean, of course, that the outside world is not important to Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia. They all have their own roles in relation to it. Bulgaria differs from the others in its split between historical and cultural ties with Russia and its strong attachment to the EU and NATO, but Russia is a factor in all countries, not least through attempts at information influence. All are also affected by the Russian war against Ukraine and American European policy.
Although, as mentioned above, the policies of the three countries are largely self-created, their policies will inevitably affect others, and as members of the EU and NATO they will influence how these organisations operate. However, there are still major uncertainties.
NATO has traditionally played a major role for Bulgaria. The fact that Bulgaria's Prime Minister, Radev, is more accommodating towards Russia does not necessarily mean that he will act as Russia's agent. He can also be seen as a politician who balances the country's overall pro-Western stance with its historical proximity to Russia. Radev's statements on NATO also indicate nothing other than that he sees NATO as still important. As for Romania, the country's strategic importance is even greater than Bulgaria's, and NATO's presence has been seen as very important. Whether the AUR, if it came to power in Romania, would affect the NATO relationship is difficult to say, but there are currently no signs that the party wants to change it. Finally, as for Slovenia, Janez Janša expresses himself in a way that suggests that he will give high priority to cooperation with, among others, NATO. However, for all countries, the question remains how they will react if NATO has to rely primarily on European and Canadian resources and solidarity.
Regarding EU The relations between the three countries are considerably more multifaceted. In the economic sphere, Slovenia and Bulgaria are more integrated, as these countries, in 2007 and 2026 respectively, introduced the euro, while Romania has not yet fulfilled the requirements for this. Of course, all countries are still influenced by EU policies, especially measures against corruption and for rule of law reforms, as well as the requirements that the EU sets for the countries to benefit from various types of support.
Politically, countries can still maintain a certain distance from the EU. Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev's stance on Russia could become a problem in the future, and the veto used in connection with the EU's 21st sanctions package against using sanctions against Patriarch Kirill may be repeated. Similar situations could arise if AUR becomes a government party in Romania, given that its leader, George Simion, is critical of increased EU integration and of Brussels gaining greater influence over member states. Regarding Slovenia, Prime Minister Janša has declared that he wants to promote relations with the EU, but this could become problematic if it turns out that his policies violate EU rules. However, when it comes to EU enlargement to Ukraine and Moldova, none of the three countries seem to have any objections as long as the EU's criteria are decisive.
Finally, it can be said that changes in a NATO or EU country will inevitably, positively or negatively, affect other countries and organizations in Europe. As for Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia, there are currently no signs that the three will join forces and pursue a common policy. It is likely that they will individually, and like other countries, pursue a policy based on their own interests that will sometimes be seen as problematic, but which will not lead to any dramatic challenges for NATO or the EU.