From Trump to Biden, and then some

Reflections on a dramatic global development

Author: Michael Sahlin
Published by the Royal Swedish Academy of Military Sciences, Stockholm 2021

The Afghanistan drama, through its character as a "game changer", has, in various respects and at various levels, overshadowed much of what is happening in other areas and what has happened previously during an eventful year since last summer - a drastic example of the difficulties of correctly interpreting and guarding against unexpected, sudden changes in the scene.

Just a year ago, we knew nothing about how the corona crisis would develop, in the US and in the world, in the tug-of-war between the rate of spread, the effectiveness of vaccination and the risks of mutation. Etc. And so it was with the US presidential and congressional elections – would there ultimately be a change of power or four more years with Trump? And if not, would there be an orderly and peaceful change of power, or a period of destructive turbulence? Were there real risks that a driven-out Trump would take the opportunity to try to create completed facts, at home and/or abroad, in Iran and/or Afghanistan, to protect his legacy and/or make it difficult for his successor? What did, and still does, the drama on January 6 when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol mean? What does the US election and the post-election drama mean for the stability of the American political system in the current climate of polarization and in the face of upcoming electoral challenges? And what does that question in turn mean for transatlantic cooperation, in a new context?

There is therefore much to consider and keep in mind. This publication collects member Michael Sahlins' twelve columns on the academy's website during the year. With developments in the US in the transition from Trump to Biden and trends in the crisis- and war-torn (greater) Middle East as the common thread in the various texts, a selection of central aspects of global developments are discussed, as these could be assessed at the different times.

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