A war between Russia and Ukraine would be a disaster... A conventional war between Russia and Ukraine would entail vast military casualties and the possible murder of many thousands of civilians. Russians and Ukrainians have a history of mutual enmity; this hostility, combined with the intermixing of their populations, raises the possibility that war between them could entail Bosnian-style ethnic cleansing and mass murder. This war could produce millions of refugees clamoring at the borders of Western Europe.
John J. Mearsheimer, 1993 [1]
How should we understand Russia's invasion of Ukraine? As an expression of Russian imperialism, a whim of an increasingly unpopular, autocratic leader, or perhaps as a response to NATO's gradual expansion eastward?
In this article, I want to highlight a perspective that is all too rarely heard, namely Samuel Huntington's perspective on civilizations, its meaning, and why this unique perspective can help us understand the ongoing war.
Samuel Huntington's book "The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order", first published in 1993 as an article in Foreign Affairs [2] and later as a book in 1997, gives us analytical tools to understand the greatest geopolitical crisis in Europe since the Cold War.
Culture and Civilizations
The central theme of the book is that “culture, and cultural identities, which in their broadest form are civilizational identities, shape the patterns of cohesion, disintegration, and conflict in the post-Cold War era. After the Cold War, the crucial distinctions between people are not ideological, political, or economic. They are cultural.”[3]
The fact is, according to Huntington, that “philosophical assumptions, underlying values, social relations, customs, and the general outlook on life differ significantly among civilizations.”[4] Crucial differences between groups today are not their skin color or physical appearance, but their values, institutions, and social structures.[5]
A civilization is the broadest form of cultural identity, and is defined both by objective elements, such as “language, history, religion, customs, institutions,” and by “subjective self-identification of its people.”[6] Civilization becomes the largest “we”, within which we ourselves feel culturally at home, in contrast to all the other “them”.
It will be important to note here for the discussion later that civilizations, according to Huntington, are not in themselves political entities, but cultural ones. Thus, there can be several political systems within a civilization. However, there are exceptions, where Huntington identifies Japan as a civilization that is also a country.[7]
This article is naturally mainly interested in two of the civilizations that Huntington identifies – the Orthodox and the Western.
Russian civilization
The center of Orthodox civilization is present-day Russia, and is separate from Western Christianity "by its Byzantine origins, distinct religion, 200 years of Tatar rule, bureaucratic despotism, and limited exposure to the Renaissance, Reformation, Enlightenment, and other central Western experiences."[8]
Russia, Huntington argues, is distinct from the West, with Russia lacking seven of eight identified markers of Western civilization – “religion, language, separation of church and state, the rule of law, social pluralism, representative bodies, individualism.”[9] These markers of Western civilization were, according to Huntington, almost completely absent from the Russian experience.
Instead, Orthodox civilization is a product of “indigenous roots in Kievan Rus and the Muscovite Empire, significant Byzantine influence, and prolonged Mongol rule.”[10]
Western civilization
The central aspects of Western civilization, which distinguish it from others, came into being before the modernization of the West. In other words, “the West was the West long before it became modern.”[11]
Huntington mentions eight aspects that make Western civilization what it is today, seven of which were mentioned above. Added to this is the legacy of the classical era, including Greek philosophy and rationalism, Roman law, Latin, and Christianity. Orthodox civilization shared in this, but not to the same extent as the West.
Religion has been separated from secular power in Western civilization. This, Huntington believes, has greatly contributed to the freedom that is found in the West today. The historical and sometimes bloody struggle between religion and state has not been found in the same way in any other civilization, according to Huntington.
On their own, none of the eight factors may be unique, but it was their combination that gave the West its distinctive character, and forms part of the core of Western civilization.[12]
Ukraine
But what does this have to do with Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine?
Ukraine, Huntington could write as early as 1997, has historically had weak but close ties to Russia and large parts of the country are, and have been, Orthodox. Ukraine has at the same time had a strong national identity, and was several times throughout history an independent country.
In the post-communist East, Huntington saw Russia trying to create a bloc of Orthodox countries, and in 1993 Yeltsin argued that other countries needed to “give Russia special power as a guarantor of peace and stability in the former regions of the Soviet Union.”[13]
What makes Ukraine particularly interesting is that Huntington argues that Ukraine is a divided country with two cultures, the Orthodox and the Western. The fault line between Western and Orthodox civilization runs through the country and has done so for centuries; parts of modern Ukraine have belonged to Poland, Lithuania and Austria-Hungary.[14]
When Huntington wrote his book, he believed that the relationship between Russia and Ukraine could go in three directions.
The first alternative was that violence between the countries would break out, something he saw as unlikely as it involved "two Slavic, mainly Orthodox peoples, who have had close relations for centuries and intermarriage is common."[15] Another alternative was that Ukraine could split along its civilizational fault line, with the eastern half forming a union with Russia. The third alternative, the most likely according to Huntington, was that Ukraine would continue to be a civilizationally divided country, independent and generally cooperating with Russia.
Ukraine's Development
I would like to propose a fourth alternative here, which Huntington did not describe, but which is in line with the reasoning he uses. Namely, that Western civilization would expand and grow in influence in Ukraine, something Russia has not been able to accept.
The first sign of this development was broadcast to the world in 2004, with the Orange Revolution, in which the more pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko won re-election as president after major popular protests. Viktor Yanukovych, his more pro-Russian opponent, lost, but won the subsequent election in 2010. However, he was ousted by the Ukrainian parliament in February 2014 after the Euromaidan protests, which erupted when he suspended negotiations with the EU on closer cooperation. On February 22, 2014, 328 out of 447, or approximately 73% of Ukrainian members of parliament, voted to oust Yanukovych, who had already fled to Russia. The agreement was finally ratified by all EU countries in 2017 and means, among other things, that Ukrainian citizens can travel visa-free to the EU, and that parts of Ukraine's legislation are harmonized with the EU.
The Russian invasion of Donbass and Luhansk and the illegal annexation of Crimea in the spring of 2014 can be seen as a direct response to Euromaidan and the more Western-oriented direction chosen by the Ukrainian parliament. However, instead of forcing Ukraine back into the Orthodox sphere, it had exactly the opposite effect – 78 percent of residents of eastern Ukraine said in the fall of 2014 that they were against Russian intervention in the country.[16] Eighty percent of respondents wanted Ukraine to remain undivided. Perhaps more importantly, support for EU membership increased (from 53 to 59 percent), while support for Russian President Putin’s customs union fell (from 24 to 17 percent). Two-thirds of the country said they had a negative view of Russia.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine since 2019, campaigned during his presidential election campaign for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.[17] In November 2021, 62 percent said they would support Ukrainian EU membership, and 58% were in favor of NATO membership.[18]
The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine can only be considered to have accelerated the process of Ukrainian membership, and four days after the invasion, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Ukraine “is one of us and we want them.”[19]
Russia's invasion of Ukraine – a clash of civilizations
The deep division between western and eastern Ukraine, described by the New York Times in 2014 as rooted in “history, language and culture”[20], may be on the verge of dissolution, and the country on the verge of becoming part of Western civilization. The fault line that Huntington described as splitting Ukraine down the middle has shifted eastward, perhaps all the way to Russia. Huntington did not describe how such a process in a divided civilizational country would work, but he described the process (1997) for a country to change civilizational affiliation as “protracted, disjointed, and painful, politically, sociologically, institutionally, and culturally. It has always failed so far.”[21]
It is clear that Russian President Putin considers Ukraine to be a central part of Orthodox civilization. On February 21, Putin gave a nearly hour-long speech to the Russian people, in which he emphasized that Ukraine “is not just a neighboring country. It is an indisputable part of our own history, culture, and spiritual sphere.”[22]
In an essay published in July 2021, Putin argued, completely without history, that Ukraine was “entirely a product of the Soviet era.” When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia was thus “robbed.”[23]
It is hard to disagree with Casey Michel, who in The New Republic describes how Putin’s obsession with controlling Ukraine is not about security guarantees, but about “pure, genuine, neo-imperialism, and a desire to reclaim territories Putin believes belong to Moscow.”[24]
The same sentiment is found in Russia expert Stephen Kotkin, who in an interview in early March emphasized that “What we have in Russia today is no surprise. It is no deviation from a historical pattern. Long before NATO existed – in the nineteenth century – Russia looked like this: it had an autocrat. It had repression. It had militarism. It had a suspicion of foreigners and the West.”[25]
The Orthodox civilization, with Russia as its center, is thus trying by all available means to force Ukraine into their sphere, with increasingly direct methods since the 90s. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is only the culmination of a decades-long process in which Ukraine has gradually approached Western civilization.
It was therefore of enormous importance that the European Union, together with the UK, the US and others, came to Ukraine's support early on. Through strong sanctions against Russia, direct and indirect support for Ukraine[26], and hopes of EU membership are drawing Ukraine to the West.
Here it is of utmost strategic importance that Sweden, together with other EU members, primarily those around the Baltic Sea, together ensure that sanctions are complied with, that the EU, as an institution or individual countries, does not turn a blind eye, and that Ukraine receives the support that is necessary. The arms deliveries Sweden sent were an important signal – not only to Ukraine, but also to Russia.
The next step should be to design a kind of modern Marshall Plan for Ukraine, where the EU is involved in rebuilding the country when the war is over. Where Russia has created ruins, forcing nearly ten million Ukrainians to flee.[27], where the EU will build. If the West fails in Ukraine, the entire Western civilization and the European security order risk being at stake. The West, through institutions like the EU, should take an even more active role in defending our interests, and act as the economic and political superpower it de facto is.
The West has a historic chance here to ensure, once and for all, that Ukraine belongs to Western civilization. Because right now, Ukraine's armed forces and its civilian population are dying for the idea of the West.
The author is an officer in the command regiment.
Notes
[1] John, Mearsheimer, 1993, The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/1993-06-01/case-ukrainian-nuclear-deterrent
[2] Samuel Huntington, 1993, The Clash of Civilizations?, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/1993-06-01/clash-civilizations
[3] Samuel Huntington, 1997, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, The Free Press, p. 20 – 21
[4] Ibid., p. 28.
[5] Ibid., p. 43
[6] Ibid., p. 43
[7] Ibid., p. 44
[8] Ibid, pp. 45–46
[9] Ibid., p. 139
[10] Ibid., p. 140
[11] Ibid., p. 69
[12] ibid, 72
[13] Ibid., p. 164.
[14] Ibid., p. 165
[15] Ibid., p. 167
[16] International Republican Institute, 2014, IRI UKRAINE PRE-ELECTION POLL SHOWS STRONG OPPOSITION TO RUSSIAN AGGRESSION, SUPPORT FOR KYIV GOVERNMENT,
[17] Anton Troianovsky City of Kyiv, Ukraine, 'Parallel universe': The front-runner seeking to be Ukraine's president plays one on TV, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/parallel-universe-the-front-runner-seeking-to-be-ukraines-president-plays-one-on-tv/2019/03/09/2a4cc22e-3a8c-11e9-b10b-f05a22e75865_story.html
[18] Ukrinform, 2021, Poll: 58% back Ukraine's accession to NATO, 62% want Ukraine to join the EU, https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3349221-poll-58-back-ukraines-accession-to-nato-62-want-ukraine-to-join-eu.html
[19] Emma Anderson, 2022, Ukraine belongs in the EU, Commission chief von der Leyen says, https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-commission-chief-von-der-leyen-invite/
[20] Andrew Higgins, 2014, With President's Departure, Ukraine Looks Toward a Murky Future, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/world/europe/with-presidents-departure-ukraine-looks-toward-a-murky-future.html?action=click&module=RelatedCoverage&pgtype=Article®ion=Footer
[21] Samuel Huntington, 1997, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, The Free Press, p. 139
[22] Kremlin, 2022, Address by the President of the Russian Federation, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67828
[23] Kremlin, 2021, Article by Vladimir Putin "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
[24] Casey Michel, 2022, Vladimir Putin's Empire of Delusions, https://newrepublic.com/article/165448/vladimir-putin-empire-ukraine-russia
[25] David Remnick, 2022, The Weakness of the Despot, An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West, https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin?fbclid=IwAR1yRrTQQT47XkyxUKpwoQzYO-6-NOEbECoLoL3Jc_605Ajy-6QlJK_io-w
[26] European Commission, 2022, EU Solidarity with Ukraine, https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/stronger-europe-world/eu-solidarity-ukraine_en
[27] Radio Free Europe, 2022, Ten Million People Have Fled Their Homes In Ukraine Since War Began, UN Says, https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-refugees-united-nations/31762007.html